Score based on current conditions
Today's Outlook
Wind
—
kts speed
—
kts gusts
—
direction
Direction
Thermal
—
strength
—
coastal °F
—
inland °F
—
delta °F
Tide
—
Best Window
—
—
Score Breakdown
How This Works
Confidence Score (0–100)
The score combines five weighted factors into a single number. A marine layer penalty can reduce it further.
| Factor | Max Points | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|
| Wind Speed | 30 | Ideal range depends on sport — Laser: 8–12 kts, Wingfoil: 15–22 kts |
| Direction | 20 | W/WNW (240–310°) is the ideal thermal direction for Mission Bay |
| Thermal | 20 | Inland–coastal temperature difference that drives afternoon sea breeze |
| Gust Factor | 15 | Ratio of gusts to sustained wind — lower is more consistent |
| Time of Day | 15 | Peak thermal hours are 11am–3pm |
| Marine Layer | −15 | Penalty when coastal fog/clouds suppress thermal development |
Recommendations
| Label | Score |
|---|---|
| GO | 65–100 |
| MAYBE | 40–64 |
| NO-GO | 0–39 |
Best Window
The 3-hour block between 9am–6pm with the highest average confidence score.
Thermal Gradient
As inland areas heat up relative to the coast, air rises and draws in cooler ocean air — creating the sea breeze that Mission Bay sailors rely on. A larger delta means a stronger thermal engine.
Data Sources
- Wind & temperature forecast — Open-Meteo API
- Tides & observed wind — NOAA CO-OPS
- Marine forecast — NWS San Diego